In Year 5 Chapter 1 of Harry Potter: Hogwarts Mystery, the mysterious Dark Wizard returns and attacks Ben Copper and the player character in the courtyard. After this attack, the Dark Wizard reveals that one of the player character’s friends is going to die that year at Hogwarts as part of the quest to find the Cursed Vaults, but stops short of revealing exactly who is on the chopping block.

We can likely rule out Ben Copper since the Dark Wizard had the chance to off him then and didn’t go through with it. And while most all of the player character’s friends are in danger, Merula seems like the most likely possibility for getting killed off for a number of reasons. For one, her popularity means that her death will have emotional significance for Hogwarts Mystery fans, and secondly, she can be killed off without keeping players from unlocking any content.

Merula has been portrayed as an antagonist in the past, but she has also worked cooperatively with the player character on a number of occasions. Despite this, she is not an official “friend” that players can interact with by eating a meal in the Great Hall, playing Gobstones in the courtyard, or drinking butterbeer at the Three Broomsticks. By interacting with people on their friends list, Hogwarts Mystery players can unlock special rewards, including exclusive cosmetic items, and killing off one of those characters before players can fully level their friendship would permanently lock them out of unlocking some of the content.

Therefore, it would make more sense for Jam City to kill off a character who is not an official “friend,” like Merula, than it would to kill off someone like Rowan Khanna. Plus, it’s also worth pointing out that Merula appears to have increased importance in Year 5, as she has been selected as one of Madam Rakepick’s vault-hunting apprentices alongside the player character and Bill Weasley. We know that Bill isn’t going to die because he appears in the Harry Potter novels, which take place years after the events of the game, so it makes Merula’s death seem even more likely.

Of course, Jam City could just be teasing players and decide not to kill off any characters in the game. However, the Harry Potter franchise uses death as a central theme in the novels and the films, so it seems likely that some characters will be killed off in the game at some point.

Harry Potter: Hogwarts Mystery is out now for iOS and Android mobile devices.